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Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 15:03
Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna

Home
W
03
Full time
Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna

Away
D
Ticha Stadium
GoalVio prediction
45% confidence
Cherno More Varna(45%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Cherno More Varna
45%
Draw
29%
Spartak Varna
26%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Cherno More Varna
34
Spartak Varna
73
Defence
Cherno More Varna
91
Spartak Varna
27
Momentum
Cherno More Varna
100
Spartak Varna
33
Danger (xG)
Cherno More Varna
0.90
Spartak Varna
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Cherno More Varna)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Spartak Varna)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Cherno More Varna)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Spartak Varna)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna
WLW
Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna
DL

Probability breakdown

45% confidence
Cherno More Varna45%
Draw29%
Spartak Varna26%

Cherno More Varna leads with 45% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Cherno More Varna head into this in First League fixture at Ticha Stadium in mixed form (W), while Spartak Varna arrive in mixed form (D). Cherno More Varna have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Spartak Varna over 1 games.

The model rates Cherno More Varna's attack at 34/100 against a 27/100 Spartak Varna defence, and Spartak Varna's attack at 73/100 against a 91/100 Cherno More Varna backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Cherno More Varna have won all 2 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Spartak Varna have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Cherno More Varna and Spartak Varna in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Cherno More Varna to win with 45% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Cherno More Varna 4483%, Draw 2915%, Spartak Varna 2602%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna

W
vs Spartak Pleven
3 Jul 2026
10
L
@ Botev Plovdiv
16 May 2026
05
W
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
12 May 2026
20
Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna

D
vs CSKA 1948
17 Jul 2026
22
L
@ Septemvri Sofia
14 May 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?

GoalVio's model predicts Cherno More Varna to win with 45% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cherno More Varna vs Spartak Varna?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more