Cherno More Varnavs
Septemvri Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/27/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cherno More Varna · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cherno More Varna 2-0 Septemvri Sofia
Original prediction
Cherno More Varna
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 55.5% | 43.4% | -12.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.9% | 27.7% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.93 | 18.7% | 28.9% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Cherno More Varna
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Cherno More Varna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60