Cherno More Varnavs
Lokomotiv Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cherno More Varna · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cherno More Varna 2-2 Lokomotiv Sofia
Original prediction
Cherno More Varna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 47.5% | 38.9% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.7% | 25.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.9% | 35.8% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Cherno More Varna
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Cherno More Varna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20