Cherno More Varnavs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Pro Cup · 10/21/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cherno More Varna · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cherno More Varna 0-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Original prediction
Cherno More Varna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 October 2026 at 16:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.6% | 38.5% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.5% | 30.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 27.9% | 31.3% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Cherno More Varna
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Cherno More Varna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80