Cherno More Varnavs
Levski Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/11/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Levski Sofia · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (14%), 0-2 (14%), 0-4 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cherno More Varna 0-2 Levski Sofia
Original prediction
Levski Sofia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.42 | 17.0% | 13.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.1% | 19.4% | -6.7 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 56.9% | 66.8% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–314%
- 2.0–214%
- 3.0–411%
Predicted outcome
Levski Sofia
Probability
66.8%
Model confidence
66.8%
Levski Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20