GGOALVIO

Bulgaria · First League · 7/23/2023, 4:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Cherno More Varna are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Hebar 1918 are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Hebar 1918 hold a 15.9-point power-rating edge (25.8 v 41.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.2% in the First League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

37.2%

Model confidence

37.2%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Cherno More VarnaDWDLL

GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Hebar 1918DWDLW

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Cherno More VarnaHebar 1918
11.1Attack33.3
44.4Defence53.3
11.1Form32.4
25.8Power41.7
1.10xG0.92
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