Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Chernihiv are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Chayka are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Chernihiv hold a 3.1-point power-rating edge (69.9 v 66.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.7% in the Druha Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80