Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 12:37
Cherepovets

Cherepovets

Home
W
21
Full time
Iskra Smolensk

Iskra Smolensk

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
55% confidence
Cherepovets(55%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Cherepovets
55%
Draw
25%
Iskra Smolensk
19%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Cherepovets
94
Iskra Smolensk
73
Defence
Cherepovets
66
Iskra Smolensk
66
Momentum
Cherepovets
100
Iskra Smolensk
100
Danger (xG)
Cherepovets
2.70
Iskra Smolensk
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Cherepovets)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Iskra Smolensk)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Cherepovets)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Iskra Smolensk)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CherepovetsCherepovets
W
Iskra SmolenskIskra Smolensk
W

Probability breakdown

55% confidence
Cherepovets55%
Draw25%
Iskra Smolensk19%

Cherepovets leads with 55% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Cherepovets head into this in Second League - Group 2 fixture in mixed form (W), while Iskra Smolensk arrive in mixed form (W). Cherepovets have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Iskra Smolensk over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Cherepovets (66/100) and Iskra Smolensk (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Cherepovets have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Iskra Smolensk have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between Cherepovets and Iskra Smolensk in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Cherepovets to win with 55% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Cherepovets 5540%, Draw 2545%, Iskra Smolensk 1915%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Cherepovets

Cherepovets

W
@ Kosmos Dolgoprudny
11 May 2026
31
Iskra Smolensk

Iskra Smolensk

W
vs Dinamo Vologda
16 May 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Cherepovets vs Iskra Smolensk?

GoalVio's model predicts Cherepovets to win with 55% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Cherepovets vs Iskra Smolensk?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Cherepovets vs Iskra Smolensk?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cherepovets vs Iskra Smolensk?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more