Chemik Bydgoszczvs
Unia Swarzędz
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/24/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Unia Swarzędz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chemik Bydgoszcz 1-3 Unia Swarzędz
Original prediction
Unia Swarzędz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 31.1% | 30.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.3% | 25.9% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.6% | 44.1% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Unia Swarzędz
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Unia Swarzędz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80