Chemik Bydgoszczvs
Gedania Gdansk
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chemik Bydgoszcz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chemik Bydgoszcz 2-3 Gedania Gdansk
Original prediction
Chemik Bydgoszcz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.6% | 41.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 26.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.4% | 32.3% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Chemik Bydgoszcz
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Chemik Bydgoszcz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80