Chemik Bydgoszczvs
Bałtyk Koszalin
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 9/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chemik Bydgoszcz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chemik Bydgoszcz 2-2 Bałtyk Koszalin
Original prediction
Chemik Bydgoszcz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.5% | 38.9% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 26.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.1% | 34.2% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Chemik Bydgoszcz
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Chemik Bydgoszcz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80