Chełmianka Chełmvs
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 9/26/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chełmianka Chełm · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Chełmianka Chełm 1-0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Chełmianka Chełm 2-1 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Original prediction
Chełmianka Chełm
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 66.5% | 55.9% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 20.5% | 26.6% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 6.89 | 13.0% | 17.5% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Projected Score
Chełmianka Chełm 1–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Chełmianka Chełm
Probability
55.9%
Model confidence
55.9%
Chełmianka Chełm has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20