Chełmianka Chełmvs
Korona Kielce II
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 4 · 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chełmianka Chełm · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chełmianka Chełm 2-0 Korona Kielce II
Original prediction
Chełmianka Chełm
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.5% | 58.6% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.71 | 19.1% | 21.7% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 5.52 | 16.3% | 19.7% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–09%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Chełmianka Chełm
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Chełmianka Chełm has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20