Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chemal 1-1 Gendrim
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 15:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 37.5% | 34.0% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.89 | 30.6% | 30.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.78 | 31.8% | 35.7% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.89 · Draw 1.89 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.3%
Model confidence
35.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChemalDWWLW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GendrimWWWLD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ChemalGendrim
0.0Attack66.7
100.0Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power80.3
0.97xG1.11