GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/10/2023, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Newport County · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Cheltenham are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Newport County are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Newport County hold a 34.4-point power-rating edge (11.1 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Newport County holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Newport County

Probability

46.5%

Model confidence

46.5%

Newport County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CheltenhamDLLLL

GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Newport CountyLWLLD

GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
CheltenhamNewport County
11.1Attack22.2
0.0Defence77.8
0.0Form33.3
11.1Power45.5
1.26xG1.80
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