GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 1/14/2025, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Cheltenham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Cheltenham are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Colchester are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Colchester hold a 23.7-point power-rating edge (11.1 v 34.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the EFL Trophy, while Cheltenham holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 67% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Cheltenham

Probability

38.6%

Model confidence

38.6%

Cheltenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CheltenhamDLWDW

GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ColchesterLLDWD

GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CheltenhamColchester
11.1Attack25.0
0.0Defence16.7
0.0Form50.0
11.1Power34.9
1.81xG1.69
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