Chelsea Wvs
Birmingham City W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/19/2026, 11:45:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelsea W 2-0 Birmingham City W
Original prediction
Chelsea W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.05 | 87.3% | 61.5% | -25.8 pts |
| Draw | 10.80 | 8.5% | 20.0% | 11.5 pts |
| Away | 22.04 | 4.2% | 18.5% | 14.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea W
Probability
61.5%
Model confidence
61.5%
Chelsea W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60