Chelsea Wvs
Aston Villa W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/5/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea W · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 4-0 (14%), 5-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelsea W 1-1 Aston Villa W
Original prediction
Chelsea W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 74.6% | 87.5% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.85 | 15.8% | 8.5% | -7.3 pts |
| Away | 9.60 | 9.6% | 4.0% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.4–014%
- 3.5–011%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea W
Probability
87.5%
Model confidence
87.5%
Chelsea W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40