Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelsea W 1-0 Arsenal W
Original prediction
Chelsea W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.5% | 46.6% | 8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 26.8% | 26.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 34.7% | 27.4% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea W
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Chelsea W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Chelsea WWWWDW
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Arsenal WWDDWW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Chelsea WArsenal W
88.9Attack22.2
88.9Defence88.9
77.8Form55.6
81.4Power59.1
1.80xG0.98