Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vizela · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Chaves 0-1 Vizela, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Chaves 2-1 Vizela
Original prediction
Vizela
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 38.0% | 25.7% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.5% | 27.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.4% | 46.4% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Projected Score
Chaves 0–1 Vizela
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Vizela
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Vizela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChavesWDLLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VizelaLLWDW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ChavesVizela
28.6Attack33.3
33.3Defence71.4
23.8Form52.4
31.7Power53.9
0.67xG1.29