Chavesvs
Os Marialvas
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chaves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chaves 2-1 Os Marialvas
Original prediction
Chaves
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.30 | 70.2% | 44.1% | -26.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.58 | 19.9% | 24.9% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 9.23 | 9.9% | 31.0% | 21.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Chaves
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Chaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChavesDLLWW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Os MarialvasDWWWW
GF 11 · GA 0 · avg 2.20/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
ChavesOs Marialvas
100.0Attack83.3
33.3Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power92.8
1.67xG1.78