Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
19%
HighconfidenceChaves are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while AVS are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and aVS hold a 8.0-point power-rating edge (53.4 v 61.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely result in the Segunda Liga, favouring a draw with 19.0% confidence, a 35% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
19.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChavesLWLLW
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
AVSLDWWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ChavesAVS
39.2Attack49.0
66.7Defence66.7
50.0Form62.7
53.4Power61.4
0.82xG0.92