GGOALVIO

USA · USL League One Cup · 5/25/2024, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Lexington · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Chattanooga Red Wolves are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lexington are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lexington hold a 15.1-point power-rating edge (33.8 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.5% in the USL League One Cup, while Lexington holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Lexington

Probability

35.5%

Model confidence

35.5%

Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Chattanooga Red WolvesLWLDW

GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LexingtonDWDLL

GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Chattanooga Red WolvesLexington
16.7Attack58.3
58.3Defence41.7
16.7Form41.7
33.8Power48.8
1.28xG1.39
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