Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charlotte · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Charlotte 3-2 FC Dallas
Original prediction
Charlotte
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 43.1% | 39.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.8% | 27.4% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 32.1% | 33.0% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Charlotte
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Charlotte has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CharlotteLWDWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FC DallasWDWWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CharlotteFC Dallas
58.0Attack61.7
53.1Defence48.1
53.1Form58.0
55.6Power57.7
1.94xG1.61