Charleroivs
Union St. Gilloise
COMPLETEDBelgium · Jupiler Pro League · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charleroi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise
Original prediction
Charleroi
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 28.7% | 37.6% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.5% | 26.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 43.9% | 36.0% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Charleroi
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Charleroi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80