Charleroivs
Cercle Brugge
COMPLETEDBelgium · Jupiler Pro League · 9/19/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Charleroi · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge
Original prediction
Charleroi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.9% | 65.1% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.4% | 19.7% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 4.49 | 20.8% | 15.2% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Charleroi
Probability
65.1%
Model confidence
65.1%
Charleroi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80