Chapulinerosvs
Celaya
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 9/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Celaya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chapulineros 1-1 Celaya
Original prediction
Celaya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.70 | 24.5% | 25.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.4% | 25.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 50.1% | 49.5% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Celaya
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Celaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChapulinerosLLDDL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
CelayaWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ChapulinerosCelaya
16.7Attack83.3
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
11.2Power94.8
1.11xG2.04