Chapeltonvs
Waterhouse
COMPLETEDJamaica · Premier League · 10/5/2026, 10:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waterhouse · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chapelton 0-6 Waterhouse
Original prediction
Waterhouse
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.41 | 26.4% | 28.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.2% | 28.0% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 44.5% | 44.0% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Waterhouse
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Waterhouse has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80