Changwon Cityvs
Yangpyeong
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K3 League · 10/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Changwon City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Changwon City 2-1 Yangpyeong
Original prediction
Changwon City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.6% | 53.1% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.8% | 24.9% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 24.6% | 22.0% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Changwon City
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Changwon City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80