Changchun Yataivs
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Changchun Yatai · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Changchun Yatai 1-0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Original prediction
Changchun Yatai
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.1% | 56.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.7% | 19.5% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 4.70 | 19.2% | 24.3% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Changchun Yatai
Probability
56.2%
Model confidence
56.2%
Changchun Yatai has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00