Copa RioCopa Rio
Wednesday, 22 July 2026Last updated 10:05
CFRJ / Maricá

CFRJ / Maricá

Home
D
30
Full time
Pérolas Negras

Pérolas Negras

Away
D
Alzirao
GoalVio prediction
52% confidence
CFRJ / Maricá(52%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
CFRJ / Maricá
52%
Draw
24%
Pérolas Negras
24%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
CFRJ / Maricá
9
Pérolas Negras
9
Defence
CFRJ / Maricá
91
Pérolas Negras
91
Momentum
CFRJ / Maricá
33
Pérolas Negras
33
Danger (xG)
CFRJ / Maricá
0.00
Pérolas Negras
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (CFRJ / Maricá)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Pérolas Negras)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (CFRJ / Maricá)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Pérolas Negras)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
CFRJ / MaricáCFRJ / Maricá
DDLW
Pérolas NegrasPérolas Negras
DWLD

Probability breakdown

52% confidence
CFRJ / Maricá52%
Draw24%
Pérolas Negras24%

CFRJ / Maricá leads with 52% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

CFRJ / Maricá head into this in Copa Rio fixture at Alzirao in mixed form (D), while Pérolas Negras arrive in mixed form (D). CFRJ / Maricá have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Pérolas Negras over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — CFRJ / Maricá (91/100) and Pérolas Negras (91/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

CFRJ / Maricá have won 1 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 0.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game at home. Pérolas Negras have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 0.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects CFRJ / Maricá to win with 52% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: CFRJ / Maricá 5248%, Draw 2400%, Pérolas Negras 2352%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

CFRJ / Maricá 0Draws 10 Pérolas Negras
Avg goals: 0.0
15 Jul 2026
CFRJ / Maricá
D00
Pérolas Negras

Recent form

CFRJ / Maricá

CFRJ / Maricá

D
@ Pérolas Negras
15 Jul 2026
00
D
vs Bonsucesso
10 Jun 2026
00
L
vs XV de Piracicaba
16 May 2026
01
W
vs São Gonçalo EC RJ
13 May 2026
10
Pérolas Negras

Pérolas Negras

D
vs CFRJ / Maricá
15 Jul 2026
00
W
vs Santa Cruz RJ
23 Jun 2026
51
L
@ Olaria
16 May 2026
02
D
vs América RJ
13 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win CFRJ / Maricá vs Pérolas Negras?

GoalVio's model predicts CFRJ / Maricá to win with 52% confidence.

What is the predicted score for CFRJ / Maricá vs Pérolas Negras?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in CFRJ / Maricá vs Pérolas Negras?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in CFRJ / Maricá vs Pérolas Negras?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more