CF Talaveravs
Real Valladolid II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 9/27/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Talavera · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CF Talavera 2-1 Real Valladolid II
Original prediction
CF Talavera
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.8% | 39.5% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.5% | 29.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.7% | 31.3% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
CF Talavera
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
CF Talavera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20