CF Talaveravs
Real Madrid III
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 9/13/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Talavera · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CF Talavera 0-0 Real Madrid III
Original prediction
CF Talavera
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.7% | 39.7% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.3% | 29.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.1% | 31.4% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
CF Talavera
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
CF Talavera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/1.00