CF Talaveravs
Navalcarnero
COMPLETEDSpain · Copa Federacion · 9/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Talavera · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CF Talavera 0-2 Navalcarnero
Original prediction
CF Talavera
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.3% | 39.5% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.3% | 28.4% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.4% | 32.1% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
CF Talavera
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
CF Talavera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80