CF Pachucavs
Guadalajara Chivas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 8/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guadalajara Chivas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas
Original prediction
Guadalajara Chivas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 30.5% | 31.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.4% | 26.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 42.0% | 41.7% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Guadalajara Chivas
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Guadalajara Chivas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00