CF Pachucavs
Cruz Azul
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/22/2026, 3:10:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruz Azul · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CF Pachuca 1-2 Cruz Azul
Original prediction
Cruz Azul
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 32.0% | 35.2% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.2% | 27.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 41.8% | 37.3% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Cruz Azul
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Cruz Azul has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40