CF Os Belenensesvs
Arouca
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Os Belenenses · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CF Os Belenenses 3-4 Arouca
Original prediction
CF Os Belenenses
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.85 | 18.9% | 39.0% | 20.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.5% | 25.6% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 58.6% | 35.5% | -23.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
CF Os Belenenses
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
CF Os Belenenses has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00