CF Montrealvs
Philadelphia Union
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 4/11/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Montreal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
CF Montreal are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Philadelphia Union are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Philadelphia Union hold a 3.2-point power-rating edge (37.8 v 40.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.6% in the Major League Soccer, while CF Montreal holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
CF Montreal
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
CF Montreal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00