CF Montrealvs
FC Cincinnati
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/26/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Cincinnati · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CF Montreal 3-1 FC Cincinnati
Original prediction
FC Cincinnati
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 34.5% | 32.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.9% | 26.4% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 40.6% | 41.3% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.2–37%
Predicted outcome
FC Cincinnati
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
FC Cincinnati has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80