GGOALVIO

Australia · NNSW League 1 · 3/23/2025, 5:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Lake Macquarie · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-4

Highconfidence

Cessnock City Hornets are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Lake Macquarie are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lake Macquarie hold a 34.5-point power-rating edge (39.1 v 73.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 76.9% in the NNSW League 1, while Lake Macquarie holds the strongest overall chance at 77% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 90% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Lake Macquarie

Probability

76.9%

Model confidence

76.9%

Lake Macquarie has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Cessnock City HornetsLWDWW

GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Lake MacquarieLLLLL

GF 3 · GA 19 · avg 0.60/3.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
Cessnock City HornetsLake Macquarie
53.7Attack100.0
25.9Defence55.6
33.3Form75.9
39.1Power73.6
1.44xG4.24
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