Cerrovs
Defensor Sporting
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 4/5/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Cerro are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Defensor Sporting are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Defensor Sporting hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (37.9 v 48.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 30.1% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
30.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60