Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Cerro are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Danubio are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Danubio hold a 3.9-point power-rating edge (37.9 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.6% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20