Cerro Portenovs
Rubio NU
COMPLETEDParaguay · Copa Paraguay · 9/30/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerro Porteno · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerro Porteno 2-1 Rubio NU
Original prediction
Cerro Porteno
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 47.9% | 44.6% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.4% | 27.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.67 | 24.7% | 28.2% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Cerro Porteno
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Cerro Porteno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80