Cerro Portenovs
Nacional Asuncion
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Profesional - Clausura · 9/7/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nacional Asuncion · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerro Porteno 1-0 Nacional Asuncion
Original prediction
Nacional Asuncion
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 40.1% | 29.1% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 31.3% | 28.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 28.5% | 42.1% | 13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Nacional Asuncion
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Nacional Asuncion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20