Cerro Largovs
Penarol
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 5/11/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Cerro Largo are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Penarol are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Penarol hold a 17.6-point power-rating edge (48.3 v 65.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 18.4% in the Primera División, while Penarol holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 27% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
18.4%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40