Cerritovs
Tacuarembo
COMPLETEDUruguay · Segunda División · 10/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerrito · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cerrito 1-0 Tacuarembo, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerrito 2-1 Tacuarembo
Original prediction
Cerrito
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.9% | 45.9% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.5% | 30.2% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.84 | 23.6% | 23.9% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Projected Score
Cerrito 1–0 Tacuarembo
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Cerrito
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Cerrito has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CerritoDWLWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
TacuaremboLDDDL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CerritoTacuarembo
43.2Attack25.9
60.5Defence60.5
46.9Form33.3
52.1Power42.7
1.13xG0.55