Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerrito · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerrito 1-2 Paysandu
Original prediction
Cerrito
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.1% | 45.9% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.6% | 28.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.44 | 26.3% | 25.7% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Cerrito
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Cerrito has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CerritoLWDLD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PaysanduWDLLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CerritoPaysandu
43.9Attack37.9
60.6Defence56.1
50.0Form36.4
53.4Power45.8
1.27xG0.80