Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerrito · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cerrito 0-0 La Luz, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerrito 1-2 La Luz
Original prediction
Cerrito
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.3% | 42.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.1% | 31.9% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.7% | 26.1% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Projected Score
Cerrito 0–0 La Luz
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Cerrito
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Cerrito has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CerritoWDDWL
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
La LuzLWLDL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CerritoLa Luz
41.3Attack25.3
61.3Defence64.0
46.7Form37.3
51.7Power44.3
0.98xG0.53