Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerrito · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cerrito are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Atenas are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 52.9 against 53.6. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the Segunda División, while Cerrito holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cerrito
Probability
35.3%
Model confidence
14.8%
Cerrito has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00