Cerezo Osakavs
Kawasaki Frontale
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/17/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kawasaki Frontale · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cerezo Osaka 2-4 Kawasaki Frontale
Original prediction
Kawasaki Frontale
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 34.1% | 25.6% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.9% | 24.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 39.9% | 49.6% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Kawasaki Frontale
Probability
49.6%
Model confidence
49.6%
Kawasaki Frontale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00